ProactiveAnalyses

Proactive Analysis

What is it?
     -Finding potential problems before they occur
Where?
     External data sources:
          -Formal, structured
          (e.g. Service Difficulty Reports, CADORS)
How?
     Identify new, unusual or persisting problems in fleets
     Compare own performance with external benchmarks

Reactive/Proactive Dichotomy

Reactive

Post facto - after the crash
"Tombstone mentality"
Investigation of event
Microscopic
"Smoking gun"
Forensic cause

Proactive

Identify potential hazards
Wariness
General analysis of system
Macroscopic
Chain of risk factors
Probabilistic

Sources for Proactively
Identifying Potential Hazards

Discretionary

Company experience: reports, minutes
Managers’ perceptions; Workforce opinions
Audit reports; Previous hazard analyses
Hazards identified by other organizations

Systematic

System Safety and reliability data recording systems:
- CADORS
- SDR, MMIR

Proactive Analysis
Advantages

Because of their larger size, system-wide databases are far more likely to yield information about events which might occur later in a smaller fleet
Benchmark comparisons are possible

No Significant Trends but
Significantly Above
System Wide Average

Aviation Safety Event Classification

Proactive
Safety Event Analysis

Use the Shared Experience
of Others

Manufacturer Bulletins and Airworthiness Directives take time to get to the operator

Over 80% of unscheduled maintenance is not predicted from Manufacturers’ manuals or Airworthiness Directives

Service Difficulty Report: Website databases have fleet-wide data for your models

Database Search Steps